Mathematical models developed at UA predict severity of … – Science Today

“The number of victims of traffic accidents per million inhabitants in Portugal has remained higher than the European Union average,” points Wilhelmina Clod whose work was performed under a research PhD. The researcher points out that only in 2012 “more than nine people have suffered serious injury or died every day” in Portugal as a result of road accidents. In this sense, and considering that at the national level “becomes urgent a better understanding of accident data and analysis of the effect of the vehicle on the severity of it,” Wilhelmina Clod collected data on traffic accidents along the GNR Port for the period 2006 and 2010.

The models developed by the researcher of the Research Group on Transport Technology in Mechanical Engineering Department of the AU and the Institute for Transportation Research & amp; Education, State University of America (USA) Carolina, already allow to predict the consequences for drivers and passengers in accidents involving one or two cars.

Study can help medical teams to take to the local rescue equipment ideal given the scenario (INEM image)

Considering our results, for accidents involving only one vehicle, ie situations screening “the model prediction of the risk of gravity identified age and engine capacity of the vehicle as statistically significant for predicting occurrence of serious injuries or deaths. “

As would be expected, says Wilhelmina Clod, ” older vehicles offer active safety and passive safety systems less efficient and therefore lead to lower protection for its occupants. ” For example, points out, “the lack of airbags in older models increases the risk of accident is serious.”

Interpretation of the cylinder capacity factor this is, however, less obvious . “Vehicles with larger engines sometimes have greater acceleration power” , explains the researcher. In practice, exemplifying, “we have the case of sports cars with turbo where the driver profile may enhance conduction with excessive speed and disregard the associated risk.” Comparing the two identified risk factors, the age of the vehicle and the engine capacity of the vehicle, Wilhelmina Clod indicates that the former has a more significant effect in increasing the risk of severity of the accident.

Collisions involving two vehicles

In the case of accidents involving two vehicles, ie collisions, the study points out that the AU “models of the risk of accident severity prediction revealed that the consequences the accident are more directly related to the characteristics of the other vehicle involved in the collision, than with the characteristics of the vehicle in question. “

The lack of airbags in older models increases the risk of serious accident to be

For collisions, unveils Wilhelmina Clod, ” models developed to predict the likelihood of serious injuries and or deaths, found that the displacement of the opposite vehicle increases the risk to the occupants of the vehicle examined. “,

For the interpretation of the results of these models, the researcher presents the following example : “Assuming that the subject vehicle has a collision with a small vehicle 799 cubic centimeters, of the likelihood of the subject vehicle occupants suffer serious injuries or die is 12 percent, and therefore the risk tends to be low “. Situation will be quite different if the vehicle in question undergo a collision with a larger vehicle with a displacement of 3600 cubic centimeters. “In this case the probability of the occupants of the vehicle in question suffer serious injury or die is 98 percent” points. Ie, “if the collision involved a vehicle of large displacement is almost certain that the crash will be severe.”

The models developed in UA demonstrate the need to integrate the characteristics of car park in the analysis of road safety indicators in national terms. “If it is true that tests vehicle safety encourage manufacturers to produce safer cars and guide consumers in choosing the vehicle, you must also be aware of the limitations of such tests” , warns.

If the collision involves a vehicle large displacement is almost certain that the accident is serious

“The very European New Car Assessment Program [automotive safety program of the European Union] discourages comparison of ratings of safety between vehicles same class whose weight difference is greater than 113 kg “ says. In real accidents, adds, “There is no control for differences between the weights and dimensions of vehicles involved in collisions on the roads and, as evidenced by the developed models, the characteristics of the vehicle are crucial opponent for the probability of the accident result in serious or not serious. “

In continuation of future work, beyond the interest for emergency teams, the models predict the severity of the accident based on the technical characteristics of vehicles involved may have application in the automotive industry, so that it can optimize the compromise between acceleration and the design of the vehicles, and the insurance companies so that they can determine the premium the insured vehicle having based its technical characteristics more specific.