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The University of Aveiro (UA), the researcher Wilhelmina Clod developed mathematical models capable of predicting the severity of the accident so that, quickly, with the introduction of data on age and engine capacity of the vehicles involved, one can predict how likely the existence of serious injuries or fatalities. The models in the future that potentiate the help victims can be improved with emergency medical teams and firefighters to bring the equipment to the local optimal in view of the rescue scenario.
“The number of victims of traffic accidents per million inhabitants in Portugal has remained higher than the European Union average, “says Wilhelmina Clod whose work was performed under a research PhD. The researcher points out that only in 2012 “more than 9 people daily suffered serious injury or died” in Portugal as a result of road accidents. In this sense, and considering that at the national level “becomes urgent a better understanding of accident data and analysis of the effect of the vehicle on the severity of it,” Wilhelmina Clod collected data on traffic accidents along the GNR Port for the period 2006 and 2010.
The models developed by the researcher of the Research Group on Transport Technology in Mechanical Engineering Department of the AU and the Institute for Transportation Research & amp; Education, State University of America (USA) Carolina, already allow to predict the consequences for drivers and passengers in accidents involving one or two cars.
Given the results obtained, for accidents involving only one vehicle, ie screening situations, “the model for risk prediction of gravity identified age and engine capacity of the vehicle as statistically significant for predicting occurrence of serious injuries or deaths. “
As would be expected, says Wilhelmina Clod,” older vehicles offer active safety and passive safety systems less efficient and therefore provide less protection for their occupants. ” For example, points out, “the lack of airbags in older models increases the risk of accident is serious.”
The interpretation of the displacement factor of this vehicle is, however, less obvious. “Vehicles with larger engines sometimes have greater acceleration power”, explains the researcher. In practice, exemplifying, “we have the case of sports cars with turbo where the driver profile may enhance conduction with excessive speed and disregard the associated risk.” Comparing the two identified risk factors, the age of the vehicle and the engine capacity of the vehicle, Wilhelmina Clod points out that the first “has a more significant effect in increasing the risk of accident severity.”
Collisions involving two vehicles
For the case of accidents involving two vehicles, ie collisions, the study points out that the AU “models of the risk of accident severity prediction revealed that its consequences are more directly related to the characteristics of the other vehicle involved in the collision, than itself to the characteristics of the subject vehicle. ”
For collisions, unveils Wilhelmina Clod, “the models developed to predict the likelihood of serious injuries and or deaths, found that the displacement of the opposite vehicle increases the risk to the occupants of the vehicle examined.”
For the interpretation of the results of these models, the researcher presents the following example: “Assuming that the vehicle in question has a collision with a small car of 799 cubic centimeters, the likelihood of vehicle occupants suffer under review serious injury or die is 12 percent, and therefore the risk tends to be low. ” Situation will be quite different if the vehicle in question undergo a collision with a larger vehicle with a displacement of 3600 cubic centimeters. “In this case the probability of the occupants of the vehicle in question suffer serious injury or die is 98 percent,” he stresses. Ie, “whether the collision involved a vehicle of large displacement is almost certain that the crash will be severe.”
The models developed in UA demonstrate the need to integrate the features of the car park in the analysis of road safety indicators in national terms. “If it is true that tests vehicle safety encourage manufacturers to produce safer cars and guide consumers in choosing the vehicle, you must also be aware of the limitations of such tests,” he warns.
“The very European New Car Assessment Program [program automotive security of the European Union] discourages the comparison of ratings of safety between vehicles of the same class whose weight difference is greater than 113 kilograms,” he says. In real accidents, he adds, “there is no control for differences between the weights and dimensions of vehicles involved in collisions on the roads and, as evidenced by the developed models, the characteristics of the vehicle are crucial opponent for the probability of an accident resulting in serious serious or not. ”
In continuation of future work, beyond the interest for emergency teams, the models predict the severity of the accident based on the technical characteristics of the vehicles involved may have application in the automotive industry, so that this can optimize the compromise between acceleration and the design of the vehicles, and the insurance companies so that they can determine the premium the insured vehicle having based their more specific technical characteristics
Font. – AU
17/11/2014 – 19:53
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