Balance Social Security will force increased TSU to 38% – publico

                 

                         
                     

                 

 
                         

For the income and expenses of the Social Security system reached an equilibrium point, the contributions of workers and enterprises through the single social tax (TSU) would have to increase significantly from the current 33.98% (discounting costs management) to 38.15% in 2025 and to values ​​close to 46% in 2060. The conclusion is drawn from an actuarial valuation of the welfare system Social Security, established by the Strategy and Planning Office (GEP) of the Ministry of Employment and Social Security, which is led by economist Carlos Pereira da Silva.

                     

                         Technical calculated what should be the contribution rate applied each year to the payroll declared to the angariasse system, contributions and levies, the amount strictly necessary to pay social benefits this year. And the conclusion is that the TSU would have to increase every year for the deficit ceased to exist, but not entering into political discussions about which of the parties – workers and employers -. Should fall this increase

title for example, in 2013, the “contribution rate of overall balance” should be 37.10%. Ie, so that the welfare system had not presented a financing gap, “would have been necessary to increase the TSU the current 33.98% (TSU without administration) to 37.10%,” clarify the technicians of GEP.

In 2015, the rate of “balance” should be 35.55%, increasing steadily until, in 2060, employers and workers had to channel in the aggregate 46.07% of the wage bill this year to cover all financing needs of the various benefits that year. “This figure means an increase of 12.09 percentage points compared to the current TSU without administration,” stands out in the document.

Looking at the various eventualities that are financed through the TSU, old-age pensions and death “are presenting the largest-term financing needs, with rate increases necessary to 15.3% and 2.21%, respectively.” On the contrary, unemployment benefits, disability, illness and occupational diseases will be in the long run, “able to release resource to fund other contingencies.”

The GEP team points out that the system is only sustainable if current and future income from contributions and levies, together with the assets of the reserve funds are sufficient to finance the expenses referred to the different social benefits both in the medium and long term. “When that does not happen and the system shows a structural imbalance, it is necessary to adjust the benefits, and / or increase the level of contributions and / or resort to funding sources external to the system.”

However, alert, the extraordinary appeal – “but growing” – to external sources “leaves the system dependent on the overall situation of public finances of the country”

And what reality shows, refers to. document, is “that the financial equilibrium of social protection systems has been provided by increased allocation of taxes and or other external funding sources.” A road that, to keep, “become more and more welfare systems.”

The report, released firsthand the Economic Daily , does not take sides on what best solutions to solve the financing difficulties of the public system of social protection. But leaves several recommendations, including that “it is essential to strengthen the actuarial link between contributions and benefits,” reduce or minimize access to contributory (ie funded by TSU) by beneficiaries who do not have sufficient insurance career and “combat growing sense that the contributions are but taxes and that the payment does not follow any counterpart in terms of social benefits. ” Also recommends that the entire system is more transparent.