Electric cars can cause new oil crisis – Overview

There are still a rarity. For now, electric cars represent only 1% of cars circulating in the world. Perhaps because they are expensive. Much more than those with internal combustion engines. But technological advance is to cheapen them. And its sales to grow at a breakneck pace, let foresee a significant change in the world economy. Perhaps even a revolution. The effect on the oil market will be overwhelming and will begin to be felt in the next decade, that is to say already tomorrow.

But already there we go, let’s look first at the numbers. Electric cars represent yet little: 4.2% of all new cars registered in the European Union in 2015. The truth is that is not always the case, taking into account the rate at which sales have increased. According to data from the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, total EU were sold in 2015, 146,161 which is equivalent to more than double the number recorded a year earlier – a variation of 108.8 percent. Portugal ranked third in terms of growth rate (274.7%) with a total of 1083 registered cars.

Although the universe is small, contributing to a reduced increase of registered units cause large fluctuations in the percentage rate of change (such as 950% of Bulgaria, to spend two car new registrations for 21), the growth trend is here to stay and is not a purely European phenomenon.

the global average growth rate has been 60% last year, with global sales to situate themselves in the 460,000 electric cars sold, according to a study released on Thursday, 25, the Bloomberg New Energy Finance, one think tank private dedicated to the analysis and production data on changes in the energy system.

the study estimates that sales could reach, by 2040, 41 million, or 35 % of all new passenger cars sold worldwide, accounting for one in four cars circulating on the roads.

the implications will far beyond the automotive market. The oil market will be deeply affected, since it is estimated in the study, will no longer be consumed 13 million barrels of oil per day, which will be replaced by 1 900 terawatt / hour electicidade – equivalent to 8% of the global demand for power in 2015.

But it does not take much progress in time for the impact to be felt. If the average global growth remains at 60% annually (which is plausible according to analysts Bloomberg), electric vehicles become redundant, since 2023, any things like two million barrels of oil per day – equivalent to the surplus oil that triggered the fall in prices of the raw material energy, which began in the last months of 2014 and continues to this day.

the engine of this change will be the batteries. Or rather, their prices, which, according to that study, continue to decline. Last year alone, the costs of batteries for electric cars decreased by 35 percent. Since 2005 this reduction was 65 percent. This will make, since in six years, electric cars begin to be as or more affordable as gasoline cars. And according to the projections presented in this study, by 2040 electric cars will cost less than 20,000 euros (at current prices).

But it is not only the price that is paid to consessionário that will make the difference . If oil prices stood over the next years around 50 dollars in the mid-20, having and maintaining an electric car will be even cheaper than a gasoline and this without subsidies or tax breaks.